Representative Mia Love In Strong Position for Reelection in UT-4
July 18, 2016
The attached document is a memo prepared by Scott Riding at Y2 Analytics, a survey research firm for the Mia Love campaign regarding a recent poll taken in Utah’s 4th District. The first page is a general summary regarding the results, followed by 10 pages of methodology and question results.
For Immediate Release
TO: Interested individuals
FROM: Scott Riding – Y2 Analytics DATE: July 18, 2016
REPRESENTATIVE MIA LOVE IN STRONG POSITION FOR REELECTION IN UT-4
As voters in Utah’s 4th Congressional District begin to turn their attention to races down-ballot, Representative Mia Love starts her reelection bid with support from 51% of likely voters. Challengers Doug Owens and Collin Simonsen enjoy 36% and 4%, respectively, while 8% of likely voters are still undecided. Despite an election that is still months away, Rep. Love’s support includes 32% of voters who say they will definitely vote for her, compared to 23% who say they will definitely vote for Mr. Owens and 2% who say they will definitely vote for Mr. Simonsen.
This is the strongest ballot position we have polled for the incumbent since Y2 Analytics began researching this district in early 2014, suggesting that her support has grown beyond the Republican base and into the bloc of independents that historically made this district competitive. Among non-partisan independents she is ahead by 3 percentage points and in the Salt Lake County portions of the district–which historically have leaned toward the Democratic candidate in this race–Rep. Love leads by 9 percentage points.
Voters are poised to reelect Rep. Love despite strong distaste for the candidates at the top of the ticket. 61% of likely voters in this district report a very unfavorable sentiment toward presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, but 61% also report a very unfavorable sentiment toward presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton (as you might expect, the two groups overlap but are not the same set of voters). As a result, the presidential race in this congressional district is a statistical tie between Republican Donald Trump at 29%, Democrat Hillary Clinton at 27%, and Libertarian Gary Johnson at 26%, with 8% mentioning another candidate, and 10% undecided. However, this presidential uncertainty has not translated to down-ballot consequences for either party so far.
This poll of 300 likely voters was conducted July 7–12. The poll carries a +- 5.7 percentage points margin of error. Live callers conducted the interviews over both landline phones and cell phones.
See attached topline report for complete survey details, including sampling methodology, full question wording, results, and demographics.